January 2005
In this issue:
Jared Diamond: The Ends of the World as We Know Them
Nicholas Donofrio: U.S. Innovation Edge in Jeopardy
Council on Competitiveness Innovation Report
Whole-Brain Innovation: A new workshop
Jared Diamond: The Ends of the World as We Know Them
In this Newsletter we look at the past for insight into the future, through the lens of Jared Diamond (Pulitzer Prize winning author of Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, and Collapse: How Societies Choose or Fail to Succeed). We then look at how we can shape the future through the latest reports on innovation, and from Dr Emoto’s research on water.
Jared Diamond wrote a compelling OP ED piece in the New York Times on New Year’s Day: The Ends of the World as We Know Them
New Year's weekend traditionally is a time for us to reflect, and to make resolutions based on our reflections. In this fresh year, with the United States seemingly at the height of its power and at the start of a new presidential term, Americans are increasingly concerned and divided about where we are going. How long can America remain ascendant? Where will we stand 10 years from now, or even next year?
Such questions seem especially appropriate this year. History warns us that when once-powerful societies collapse, they tend to do so quickly and unexpectedly. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise: peak power usually means peak population, peak needs, and hence peak vulnerability. What can be learned from history that could help us avoid joining the ranks of those who declined swiftly? We must expect the answers to be complex, because historical reality is complex: while some societies did indeed collapse spectacularly, others have managed to thrive for thousands of years without major reversal.
When it comes to historical collapses, five groups of interacting factors have been especially important: the damage that people have inflicted on their environment; climate change; enemies; changes in friendly trading partners; and the society's political, economic and social responses to these shifts. That's not to say that all five causes play a role in every case. Instead, think of this as a useful checklist of factors that should be examined, but whose relative importance varies from case to case.
Read the complete essay here.
Diamond says he draws hope from the knowledge that humanity's biggest problems today are ones entirely of our own making. "To save ourselves, we don't need new technology: we just need the political will to face up to our problems of population and the environment.”
This certainly became apparent during the recent tsunami catastrophe. The scale of human tragedy could have been averted if governments had the will to implement warning systems. The Thai government some years ago chose not to, partly because of the cost of technology, and partly because they were afraid of scaring away tourists.
U.S. Innovation Edge in Jeopardy
Nicholas Donofrio, senior vice president at IBM worries that the US is losing its competitive edge when it comes to innovation. He argues that investment in frontier research has always been the bedrock of American innovation. Explorations in uncharted terrain that at first seemed daunting -- even impossible – have opened up whole new vistas of science, value, wealth and societal progress:
“No one dreamed in the 1940s that the esoteric field of quantum mechanics would spawn the semiconductor and information-technology revolutions. Engineers working on time-sharing techniques probably never anticipated the Web and e-commerce. Scientists researching atomic motion most likely didn't anticipate or predict reconfigurable chips or global positioning devices.
“Today, other countries are aggressively in the game. Sweden, Finland, Israel, Japan and South Korea all spend more on R&D as a share of gross domestic product than the United States. And the European Union has pledged to boost R&D spending to 3 percent of GDP -- ahead of the United States and Japan.”
Donofrio asserts that publicly funded research in the United States has been steadily moving away from the frontiers of knowledge and closer to application and development.
“The federal research investment has grown conservative -- increasingly driven by consensus, precedent and incremental approaches. Federal funding in fundamental research is now only half of its mid-1960s peak of 2 percent of GDP, and excluding spending on defense, homeland security and space, it is expected to decline in real terms over the next five years.
“Meanwhile, corporate R&D fell nearly $8 billion in 2002, the largest single year decline since the 1950s."
(Source: <http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/10474099.htm?1c> Dec15/04)
To offset this trend, the Council on Competitiveness launched the National Innovation Initiative (NII) to come up with a plan to restart America's innovation engine.
Council on Competitiveness Innovation Report
The National Innovation Initiative ™ (NII) defines innovation as "The intersection of invention and insight, leading to the creation of social and economic value."
Their report is a call to action for US companies to innovate or abdicate, but it applies to all of us. Here is an excerpt:
Today, America finds itself at a unique and delicate historical juncture, shaped by two unprecedented shifts – one in the nature of global competition, the other in the nature of innovation itself:
1. The world is becoming dramatically more interconnected and competitive. At the same time that economic interdependencies are growing, America is in the unfamiliar position of the world’s sole superpower. It is important to recognize how novel this situation is historically, and what opportunities and dangers it holds – from rivals or potential rivals, to be sure, but perhaps even more from how we ourselves choose to handle this geopolitical reality.
2. Where, how and why innovation occurs are in flux – across geography and industries, in speed and scope of impact, and even in terms of who is innovating. In many ways, the playing field is leveling, and the barriers to innovation are falling. Whenever such a shift occurs, there are always changes in how economies and societies work – including new ways of creating value and measuring success, and realignments of competitive advantage. In the 21st century, the pace of these changes will accelerate. To thrive in this new world, it will not be enough – indeed, it will be counterproductive – simply to intensify current stimuli, policies, management strategies and to make incremental improvements to organizational structures and curricula.
Together, these large shifts suggest that we stand at an inflection point in history. Whether one looks at demographics, science, culture, technology, geopolitics, economics or the biological state of the planet, major changes are underway that will shape human society for the next century and beyond. The actions that enterprises, governments, educational institutions, communities, regions and nations take right now will determine this future.
What will America do? Will we plan and invest for the long term, rather than just the next quarter, putting in place the talent pool, innovation capital and infrastructure necessary for continuing success throughout the 21st century? Will we recognize the multifaceted nature of this problem and come together across all sectors – business, government, labor and academia – to form a new social and economic compact?
The full report is available here:
http://compete.org
Donofrio: “As the NII discovered, you don't create game-changing innovation simply by increasing your R&D budget. You do it by creating an environment where innovation will flourish. And that means understanding the process of innovation -- how it happens, where, by whom, and at what pace it happens -- all of which are changing in fundamental ways.”
Developing Innovation in Your Organization
Ian Rose and I offer a whole-brain approach to innovation, starting with a global perspective on innovation, involving teams in creatively addressing business-specific problems, and concluding with recommendations on how your organization can implement innovation. For details, click here
Events:
Miha Pogacnik: The Synergy between Arts and Business
— A Five-Module Learning Celebration hosted by Miha Pogacnik, January 2005 through to September in Slovenia.
The objective is to enhance leadership competencies required to deal effectively with constant change, pressure, speed, and fragmentation of life. There will be »out-of-the box« solutions drawn on a unique methodology based on deep insight, artistic experience and interaction.
I will be presenting at Module 2, Feb 17-19. I’ll also be giving a workshop on orchestrating collaboration through art, in Denmark Feb 21. For details visit: <http://www.creativityatwork.com/Newsletters/Dec04Miha-art-business.html>
Happy creating,
Linda Naiman
